why software projects are notoriously late?

why software projects are notoriously late? It's a question that is asked to every software developer. The answer, shockingly, might be simpler than you think: estimates are fundamentally flawed.

Let's face it, predicting how long it will take to build software is like trying to predict the weather a year in advance. Sure, we can make educated guesses, but the reality is, there are too many variables at play. The moment a piece of software becomes predictable enough to estimate, it's usually turned into a product you can buy off the shelf. So, most of what we build is new, unexplored territory.

But here's the kicker: we insist on pretending that this novel work can be nailed down with numbers. We've been doing it for decades, and it hasn’t worked once. Yet, every new project is met with the same old ritual of estimation. It's like watching a car crash in slow motion.

The problem is deeper than just inaccuracy. Estimates create a toxic environment. They lead to unrealistic deadlines, burnout, and a focus on speed over quality. We end up building things quickly, but often incorrectly. And when a project misses its estimate, fingers get pointed instead of lessons learned.

So, what's the alternative? It's not about throwing caution to the wind. It's about acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of software development and adapting our approach. Instead of rigid estimates, we need to focus on delivering value incrementally, being transparent about challenges, and empowering teams to make decisions.